Third estimate of US Q2 GDP: possible rise today - 26.9.2014

World stock indices slipped on Thursday, and this entire week has been unsuccessful for them so far. The one-day fall by 1.6% of S&P 500 turned out to be highest since July. Some investors start to say that the continuous US dollar consolidation for 11 consecutive weeks may increase the expenses of companies, and it has an impact on their financial performance.

Apple stocks indicated the highest daily decline in a year, nearly 4%, after the company did not react in a proper way to consumer complaint of the bending body of the device iPhone 6 Plus. Consumers also point out the difficulties in using Touch ID after the new version iOS 8.0.1 update. Note that the trading volume of Apple stocks was twice higher the 2-month average and amounted to 100 million. Yesterday in the US the total volume of stocks traded was 5% higher than the monthly average (6 billion). On Thursday the fallen by 18.2% Durable Goods Orders in August was an additional negative factor for the US stock market. It is the highest monthly fall since 1992. Markit Services PMI dropped in August for the third time in a row. Initial Claims climbed, though less than expected. Unlike the stock market, the poor data did not impede the dollar index growth. However, we suppose that if the US negative macroeconomic data still comes out, the dollar retracement is inevitable. After all, it has been growing 11 consecutive weeks for the first time since 1973. Today the US Q2 GDP data of the third hearing and the second hearing of Consumer Confidence index by the University of Michigan are to be released at 12-30 СЕТ. The outlook is moderately positive. Currently the US indices futures are slightly rising.

Yesterday European indices tumbled to the monthly low. In our opinion, they followed the US ones, as there were no negative factors in the Eurozone. On the contrary, the ECB President Mario Draghi announced further economy stimulation due to monetary policy easing. In theory, it can provide support the German DAX30 and the French САС40. The euro reacted with a further drop and slumped to 2-year low. The British FTSE100 fell 1% after the head of the Bank of England announced that it was ready for the rate hike, but it was difficult to say when this might happen. We believe that it can support the pound, although the Forex reaction was weak yesterday. There will be no important data released in EU for today. However, the ECB may announce the LTRO program measures at 10-00 СЕТ. This information may have a significant impact on the markets. In fact, it is a copy of the US QE3 program. At the same time the head of the Central Bank of Belgium and one of the ECB members Lucas Cohen will be giving their speeches.

Nikkei collapsed yesterday along with other world indices. At the day beginning it has hit 6-year high, and started to fall afterwards. This morning Nikkei has been rising steadily, recovering the fall. The index increase was supported by the decline renewal of Japanese yen, as well as the statement made by the Minister of Social Welfare regarding the pension reform continuation. Let us remind you that in the reform course the pension funds are shifted from Japanese bonds into stocks. The inflation in Japan in August slowed down more than expected. In our opinion, that means the continuation of the “abenomics” which is also aimed at the exchange rate weakening. Other Japanese macroeconomic indicators will be released late in the night on Monday.

Soybean prices kept on falling. Chinese authorities may suspend the discussion of possible gmo soybeans imports because of the "low public approval" of such a product. First of all, we are talking about the American transgenic soybeans containing the MIR162 gene. Recall that earlier China banned its imports in the volume of 1 million tons. This contributed to the soybean excess in the world market and lower prices. India has announced a possible increase in soybean production in 2014/2015 to 9.3-10 million tons, from 8.9 million tons in 2013/2014. It should be noted that according to USDA forecast, the US soybean crop will increase 19% in this season. As of the week beginning in the United States only 3% of soybean was harvested. During the harvesting the crop forecast might be changed and cause the fluctuations of soybean prices.